El Niño weather pattern so far not as expected by forecasters

vox.com reported back in the spring, a number of experts suggested we could see a strong El Niño in late 2014, perhaps similar to the monster event in 1997-98 that upended weather patterns across the globe. That might mean record temperatures, floods in some areas, droughts in others — a huge deal.

But in the months since, scientists have gotten a surprise: El Niño hasn’t been unfolding as expected. In fact, there’s a good chance it might not appear at all in 2014.

“The odds of El Niño have fallen from 80% in the spring to 58% today”

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has dropped the odds of El Niño appearing this winter down to 58 percent (a few months ago, those odds were at 80 percent). And if El Niño does form, forecasters now think it will be a “weak” one — not a strong event, as once thought. Read Article